Overview

Flexible Packaging Landscape

  • Retail volume sales of dairy packaging declined marginally to 5.0 billion units in 2016.
  • Retail volume sales of sauces, dressings and condiments packaging declined by 1% in 2016
  • Processed meat and seafood packaging (primary and secondary) record 1% growth in 2016.
  • Retail volume sales of confectionery packaging declined 2% to reach 4.9 billion units
  • Processed fruit/vegetables packaging (primary and secondary) declines 1% to 62 million units with metal food cans the most popular pack type.
  • Manufacturers are aiming to develop frozen fruit and vegetables
  • Retail volume sales of baby food packaging (primary and secondary) decline by 2%
  • Baby food shifts from glass and metal to flexible packaging and paper-based containers in 2016
  • Pack sizing is expected to continue heading towards personal sizes which can be consumed as snacks or whilst on the go.  

Trends

  • Key dairy brands aim to reduce the price gap between brick cartons and flexible plastic in 2016  
  • Brick liquid cartons are revamped due to increasing interest in milk alternatives.
  • Functional yogurt uses HDPE, regular yogurt thin wall plastic containers, which, along with size, differentiates the two. HDPE bottles are considered a “finer” pack, helping justify a higher price.
  • Competitively priced brick liquid cartons offered at the same price as flexible plastic are expected to reduce the long-term trend favoring flexible plastic.  
  • Small-sized formats led to new dairy products using multipacks and individual sizes
  • Amidst economic deceleration, pasta is an economic, tasty and versatile meal, favoring pasta sauces, tomato pastes, and purées packaging in 2016  
  • Pouches are the most popular pack type in sauces, dressing and condiments.
  • The threat of power rationing and health and wellness megatrends helped metal food cans in 2016, the key pack type used in shelf stable meat and seafood.
  • Health concerns favor smaller pack sizes in confectionery in 2016 with large sizes (over 50g) increasingly observed only in premium chocolate  
  • Paper-based containers outperform the overall category as confectionery is regarded as an important gift alternative.
  • Flexible plastic significantly displaced rigid containers in sauces, dressings and condiments.
  • Glass gives way to stand-up pouches in key categories,  but is the preference in pasta sauces.
  • Plastic dispensing closures and plastic screw closures are the most popular closures in PET bottles and stand-up pouches. Products in flexible plastic prove useful for refills or other uses.
  • Electric infrastructure instability led shelf stable meat and seafood purchases and a decline in processed fruit and vegetables, where affordable fresh fruit and vegetables was preferred by consumers to chilled and frozen fruit and vegetables.
  • Easy-open closures has overtaken standard can ends in shelf stable meat and seafood.
  • Safety and well-established manufacturing capabilities helped to preserve the place of flexible packaging and metal cans in larger categories, such as chilled processed red meat and shelf stable seafood.
  • Increasing inflation led to higher unit prices of fresh and packaged fruit and vegetables. A transport strike led to a scarcity of fresh food and vegetables for more than one month and available products were expensive. As such, consumer demand for packaged fruit and vegetables increased for a short period. The net effect on packaging was an decline in 2016.
  • Self-standing pouches in prepared baby food boom as they portability and independence.
  • Enfamil/Enfagrow offers smaller sizes in folding carton, useful for single or smaller meals by reducing the risk of contamination and increasing portability.
  • Other baby food like yogurts for babies helped thin wall plastic containers and peel-off foils.  

Outlook

  • Total dairy packaging is expected to record a retail volume CAGR of 1% over the forecast period to reach 5.3 billion units in2021.
  • Expanding infrastructure of local dairy players will lead to more milk in brick liquid cartons.
  • Milk alternatives, margarine and spreads and flavoured milk drinks are expected to record the strongest packaging volume growth in 2016.
  • Peel-off foil has proven versatile and is will so during the forecast period. It has traditionally been used in thin wall plastic containers in which yogurt, but is suitable for HDPE bottles.
  • Total sauces, dressings and condiments packaging is expected to record a retail volume CAGR of 1% over the forecast period to reach 461 million units in2021
  • Total processed meat and seafood packaging is expected to record a retail volume CAGR of 2% over the forecast period to reach 919 million units in2021
  • Total confectionery packaging is expected to record a retail volume CAGR of 1% in 2021
  • Total processed fruit and vegetable packaging is expected to record a retail volume CAGR of 1% over the forecast period to reach 63 million units in 2021
  • Total baby food packaging is expected to record a retail volume CAGR of 3% over the forecast period to reach 82 million units by 2021
  • The decline of glass in sauces, dressings and condiments over the forecast period will be cushioned as more expensive sauces, herbs and condiments are expected to regain momentum.
  • The relative significance of the largest table sauces categories in terms of will likely lead rigid containers paling against flexible packaging.
  • The threats of power shortages will likely remain and is expected to help shelf stable categories and metal food cans to remain in good shape in terms of volume sales over the forecast period.
  • Per capita fish consumption is expected to grow at a double digit CAGR over the forecast period.
  • After shelf stable meat, frozen processed meat packaging is expected to record the strongest volume CAGR over the forecast period, and will likely be packed mostly in flexible plastic.
  • Easy-open can ends in shelf stable meat and seafood is expected to continue to consolidate.
  • Frozen processed seafood, mostly packaged in flexible plastic, is expected to be an interesting packaging opportunity due to growing per capita consumption.
  • Seasonality is set to continue to mark innovation in confectionery. Other sugar confectionery packaging is expected to record the strongest increase in total retail volume sales. Closures will need to be as innovative as primary packaging.
  • The consumption culture of processed fruit and vegetables will likely remain weak,  limiting volume sales of its packaging.
  • Metal food cans is expected to record strong growth in shelf stable beans,  an important part of the local diet.
  • The growth in the number of single households and small families will benefit smaller sizes (less than 400g) in processed fruit and vegetables
  • The price gap which has limited sales of stand-up pouches is likely to be reduced over the forecast period, bringing more consumers who currently purchase prepared baby food in glass.  Glass jars will resist being replaced by pouches, simply because brands use this pack type to offer more expensive products with higher positioning.  
  • Consumers are expected to become more confident in the newer pack types in milk formula, such as composite containers and folding cartons.
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